Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
